The Peace Pretender
Why Donald Trump is pissing a way his chance to bring peace.
There is an argument, one that has real support among American voters that the geopolitics of Europe or indeed most of the world is no business of America’s and, in particular, that America need not lift a finger to prevent Ukraine being devoured by Russia. If that is what President Trump believes, then he should say so. He should not pretend that he is “wants everyone to stop dying” or that he is pro-peace and anti-war, or that he is trying in any realistic way to negotiate a settlement.
President Trump would like glory of being a great deal-maker. But he will fail, because he will not allow America to do its part. The outlines of a peace have been clear since at least late 2022:
Ukraine and the world recognise Russian sovereignty over Crimea other parts of Eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine and the world agree that it will never enter NATO.
But West provides some other powerful guarantee of Ukraine’s security.
One can argue that the West has no duty to deliver on that last point – but they cannot also credibly claim to want peace. Like many aggressive powers throughout history Russia has a long track-record and demonstrated willingness to invade its neighbours and to ignore old agreements.
An agreement without a hard-power security guarantee is a license for Russia to lick its wounds and continue the war under conditions of its own choosing. The shape of that guarantee would probably be a well-fortified and armed Ukraine, along with western European troops and the economic might of America’s military industrial complex.
In the past, America has used its own troops to make lasting peace in countries like Germany, Japan and South Korea. Indeed, South Korea is a good model for the kind of peace that America could forge. Even David Sacks, a vocal critic of assistance to Ukraine seems to see this
Mr Sacks is an intelligent and well informed man, but he has somehow blinkered himself to the point he doesn’t seem know that American troops defend the Korean border to this day.
Perhaps it’s because America’s security guarantee to Korea works so smoothly that Americans forget it even exists. But this is also an example of the self-deception required to equate appeasing Russia with supporting peace. Mr Sacks is part of the chorus that takes as given that somehow NATO stared the war, and the 2014 revolution in Ukraine was an American coup d'état.
The “great leadership” with which Eisenhower brought peace to Korea is not what President Trump is offering. He is instead making an isolationist choice not to lead. Trump nonetheless hopes to gain the laurels of a peacemaker by cornering Ukraine into agreeing to phony simulacrum. Support him in this if you wish, but do not pretend that you are on the side of peace.